Invariant Blog Election Update Issue 10

Election at a GlancePresidential: Less than a week before Election Day, the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is essentially a coin toss. Recent polls shifted slightly in Trump’s favor in the seven battleground states that will determine the election. However, all battleground state polls remain within the margin of error. Looking back at the timeline of media decision desk calls in 2020 provides insight into how next week could play out if, once again, only thousands of votes in a few key states decide the next president. State election procedure updates over the past four years will also impact the timing of results.Senate: If recent polls are accurate, Republicans are all but certain to take the Senate majority. In several key states, Senate Republican candidates are trailing Trump, meaning Democrats could retain seats in states that award their electoral college votes to Trump. However, it now appears unlikely that Democrats will secure the significant ticket-splitting in both Montana and Ohio or upsets in Republican-held seats in Texas or Florida needed to hold onto Senate control.House: Both parties’ path to control of the House of Representatives depends on several dozen competitive races. It could take days or weeks to determine which party who holds the gavels next year due to narrow margins and the potential for many too-close-to-call races on election night.Governors: Just four of the 11 gubernatorial races this cycle are competitive. All eyes are on New Hampshire as the race with the tightest margin and the best chance for a party flip. Democrats are working to maintain control of Washington and North Carolina, while Republicans are protecting Indiana from a long-shot party change.PresidentialWith less than a week until Election Day, early voting and mail-in voting are well underway. Recent polls show support for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump narrowing to their closest margins this cycle. While Trump holds a slight lead in some national polls, current polling averages show less than two points separating the candidates in all battleground states. Although Trump has a slight polling edge in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and Harris is up slightly in Michigan, polls are too close to accurately convey who is in the lead in the campaign’s final days. As the New York Times polling expert Nate Cohn reminded readers last week, “[t]he election…is not decided by the polls; it’s decided by the voters.”Final Days on the TrailHarris and Trump are delivering their closing arguments in the battleground states. In an unusual move this close to Election Day, both candidates are also campaigning in states they have little chance of winning to amplify their message, fundraise, boost down-ballot races, and win over key voting groups. Trump recently held rallies in traditional Democratic strongholds like California, Colorado, Illinois, and New York, arguing Democratic leaders in those states mismanaged immigration, crime, and the economy. Meanwhile, Harris campaigned in Houston, Texas, alongside Senate candidate Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX) and Beyoncé, while vice-presidential nominee Governor Tim Walz campaigned in Kentucky. Harris also delivered her final major address before the election from the Ellipse near the White House in Washington, D.C., drawing a sharp contrast between her and Trump, describing him as someone “consumed with grievance and out for unchecked power.”In the campaign’s final days, Harris is focused on reversing the erosion of support from traditional Democratic voting blocs, particularly Black and Hispanic voters. While Black voters backed the Biden-Harris ticket by a 75-point margin and Hispanic voters by 33 points, Harris’ margin slipped this fall to 65 points among Black voters and 14 points with Hispanic voters. To help narrow this gap, Harris turned to former President Barack Obama and Michelle Obama to host a series of rallies in key battleground states to energize and turn out voters. Harris also made a concerted effort to reach out directly to Black churchgoers in key states, unveiled a new economic agenda to support Black men, invested in Spanish-language media appearances, and hosted a series of events focused on courting Hispanic voters.Along with shoring up support from traditionally Democratic voting blocs, Harris’ campaign is courting Independent and Republican voters concerned about a second Trump term. She participated in an interview with Fox News and ran ads in battleground states featuring Republicans endorsing her campaign. Harris held an event with her Republican surrogates in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, a crucial swing area in the key battleground state with more registered Republican voters than Democrats, and co-hosted events in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin with former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY). Her running mate, Tim Walz, also made a pitch to rural voters at the farm of a former Trump voter in western Pennsylvania.Trump is wooing male and low-propensity voters in an effort to boost turnout among his most ardent supporters by joining nontraditional podcasts and events. This included an event at a McDonald’s in Pennsylvania, where Trump handed out french fries at the drive-thru window. Both Trump and his running mate, Sen. JD Vance (R-OH), participated in interviews on podcasts popular with men aged 18–36, including an interview on Joe Rogan’s podcast, which has over 19 million followers on Spotify. Trump also attended an Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) fight and football games, courted endorsements from former professional athletes, and made media appearances to reach Black and Hispanic men.Both campaigns are targeting suburban voters, who make up about half of the electorate and backed President Biden by about six points in 2020. While Trump led Biden among these voters in June and July by three points, Harris now holds a six-point lead. Harris is courting suburban women who voted for Nikki Haley, emphasizing her economic agenda and support for reproductive rights and stressing the importance of preserving democracy.Meanwhile, the Trump campaign opened an office in Reading, Pennsylvania, to strengthen its presence in suburban areas and hosted a town hall in Montgomery County, Pennsylvania. At the event, he discussed his tax plan, inflation, and high mortgage interest rates, seeking to appeal to suburban voters. In Michigan, the Trump campaign is also working to strengthen ties with college-educated suburbanites.Which Candidate is in the Lead?With polls this close, it is difficult to suggest that one candidate has an advantage heading into Election Day. However, given that polling in the past two presidential elections largely overstated Democrats’ standing, some Democrats are increasingly concerned that this cycle’s narrower polling margins could again underestimate Trump’s strength. In 2020, Biden won by very narrow margins despite polling over five percentage points ahead in many battleground states. This cycle, Harris is polling below where Biden was in these swing states at this time in the race.An End to the “Harris Honeymoon”?Signs indicate that Harris may be losing ground among key demographics, in important states, and on critical issues. In such a tight election, even small shifts are significant, as just 77,596 votes in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Wisconsin separated Biden and Trump from a tie in the Electoral College in 2020. In a survey conducted from September 28 through October 8, 40 percent of battleground state Independent voters said they would vote for Harris, while 39 percent preferred Trump. As recently as August, Harris led Trump by eight points among the same demographic, indicating a significant narrowing. Additionally, Harris’ favorability declined after peaking in late September.Further, as of late September, 52 percent of voters reported that the economy is an “extremely important” factor in their presidential vote, the highest since the Great Recession. This trend is particularly strong among Independents. Trump still leads Harris by a nine-point margin when voters are asked which candidate will better handle the economy. However, this is a significant improvement for Harris compared to Biden’s polling on the issue.Harris’ momentum with Democratic base voters has stagnated in recent weeks, though she has boosted her support among other demographics compared to Biden in 2020. Harris has a 23-point lead over Trump among young voters, a five-point drop from her margin in August, and roughly even with Biden’s 2020 margin. Her support is lagging among young Black and Hispanic men. However, Harris has improved her standing with white voters with a college degree compared to Biden’s 2020 performance. She has also improved on Biden’s performance with white voters without a college degree by six percentage points. Finally, she holds a six-point lead among white women voters, a significant 17-point swing compared to Biden’s margin in 2020. This comes as recent polling shows that abortion continues to be a top motivating issue for voters this election.Meanwhile, Trump expanded his support with the Republican base while chipping into Democrats’ typical base. White and non-college-educated voters shifted toward Trump by a margin of two to three points since the summer. He also appears poised to gain more votes from Black and Hispanic voters than any modern Republican presidential candidate. Still, the gender gap poses a threat to Trump, as white women represent the electorate’s largest voting bloc, and women turn out to vote at a higher rate than men.Don’t Hold Your Breath (On Results)The 2020 presidential election was the first since 2000 to be called more than a day after Election Day. Timely results will be critical amid concerns about the potential spread of misinformation and mistrust between Election Day and the certification