Acadia: Acadia to pivot to Alzheimer's psychosis pipeline, accd to Wall Street analysts

Investing.com -- Wall Street analysts see strengthening momentum in Acadia Pharmaceuticals commercial drugs and rising optionality from its late-stage Alzheimer's disease psychosis (ADP) program. Shares which settled 2% higher on Tuesday close were down 0.5% in Wed. premarket trading UBS reiterated its Buy rating and called Acadia one of its "top ideas for 2026," arguing the investment case has shifted toward improving base-business growth and the mid-2026 read-out of ACP-204, the company's next-generation psychosis candidate. The bank cut its price target to $35 from $39 after removing ACP-101 from its model following a recent Phase 2 failure, but said higher expectations for Nuplazid and Daybue offset part of the drag. UBS models risk-adjusted peak sales of more than $1.4 billion for ACP-204, noting ADP has no approved treatments and that the drug's once-daily dosing, cleaner safety profile and seamless Phase 2/3 design could help speed its path to market. Management expects enrollment to complete in the second quarter of 2026, with topline results due mid-year. On the commercial side, UBS pointed to improving execution. Daybue is penetrating the community setting more effectively, with nearly three-quarters of new prescriptions coming from community physicians in Q3. UBS lifted its 2026 Daybue sales estimate to $481 million. Nuplazid also posted stronger referral and new-prescription trends, and Acadia plans to expand its sales force by about 30% in early 2026. UBS now forecasts $742 million in Nuplazid revenue next year. Mizuho, meanwhile, raised its price target to $29 from $24 and maintained a Neutral rating, citing valuation. The firm increased its Q4 and 2026 forecasts on higher Nuplazid expectations and the addition of European Daybue sales to its model ahead of a potential CHMP opinion in the first quarter of 2026. It now expects $1.203 billion in revenue in 2026, slightly above consensus, though higher SG&A assumptions led it to trim EPS to $0.70. There are two catalysts for 2026. European regulatory decision on Daybue and Phase 2 results for ACP-204. While UBS sees the ADP program as underappreciated and a potential offset to future Nuplazid headwinds, Mizuho framed the setup as balanced, with execution gains tempered by a fuller valuation. Acadia to pivot to Alzheimer's psychosis pipeline, accd to Wall Street analysts Silver's Bullish Pattern Points Higher - Keep an Eye on $52 Resistance Zone These Under-$10 Stocks Are Up 100%+ This Quarter - And Some Still Have Room to Run